Without meaning to put a dampner on things, something must give, surely. The recent interest hikes just about slowed things, but of course they has to be more on the way! Big things are happening in the world: China; War; Talk of Oil Shortages; Weak American Dollar. But how about here? Ok our population is increasing, but mostly with immigrants, general concensus I have found is that our society has changed so much that the UK is no longer a 'nice' place to live. Not like it used to be. The idealistic little pockets are few and far between only affordable to the super wealthy. I predict mass emmigration to more respectful pleasant climes - then two things will either happen:-

- emmigration + no more people will want to come here, and there will be a housing oversupply (drop in prices);
- or emmigration + people will still come but there will be so many immigrants the country will start to go backwards (again prices will drop which is what happens when there are no buyers).

The second annalogy based on the theory that immigrants are happy with lower standards than we currently have.

It is obvious the country is only being held up by a few hard workers mostly in the City. Everyone else is just sitting back and relying on it. There are a lot of imcompetant youths around these days, maybe I am over-quantifying I don't know, but it seems the future looks dim to say the least, there will never be a job for them so how will they even buy a cheap house?

So 35'000 fewer homes, not really a problem if you're happy to live 10 in a bed is it?

From our experiences, most people tend to live close to their family and friends. Many people talk about emmigrating, but few ever actually do. Most return - but when they do, they tend to keep it low key. As an example. more people are coming back from France now than leaving - reasons are: low wages, difficulty starting business and getting a good job, not adaping to the culture and missing family and friends. All the nice weather and scenery in the world does not normally make up for being away from family and friends. So - we continue to maintain that population of UK will increase - like so many other countries. All countries will get more cosmopolitan - more global. The super rich are the most likely to move around - some of the richest will settle in London (tax heaven for offshoring billionaires). Yes, oil prices will rise, water will become short and many pressing issues will arise, but property prices are also likely to stay firm as the housing shortfall worsens - and Nimby effects stay ever present (ref: now people are blaming the floods on new homes!)

Out of interest, are people blaming the floods on new homes because of the increase in resulting pollution of new homes, or all the extra tarmac etc and the resulting water ruff-off?

Yes, I think it does ring true about returning ex-pats, but it is definately clear that people are also getting annoyed with this country. Indeed all the talk of emmigration may never come to be, other actions may be taken (i.e. riots etc), which if happened I doubt too would have much of an effect on house prices either in the grand scheme of things. So perhaps things don't look so gloomy.

Perhaps you can tell me on the spending habits of the receivers of these city bonuses, and the super wealthy? Do they generally buy big houses, or a whole area of cheap run down ones. Just trying to think about the knock on effect - whether the prime market should soar (as there is unlimited money there), or the whole housing stock in general. Prices must get to a point (for first time buyers it is happening already) where houses just are not affordable. I mean forget interest rates. For me it doesn't matter what rate is on a million pound house, there's no way I can afford it anyway! (well ok just maybe if interest free) but only after many many years saving (the traditional life time debt way).

As a first time buyer then a £200k house is more realistic, but what happens when all houses go beyond the affordability threashold of all normal people, will we all be renting off the super rich who have bought it all up? Thinking about it, it seems that's the only place all the money can come from.
Generally you need money to make money, and the super rich certainly do have it (and keep getting it!).

It appears people blame the increase in paved parking areas and roads for increased run-off (no soil and vegetation to help absorb rain) - plus many homes are built on flat lying flood plane - cheap land, no levelling required and easier to get planning permission because the homes are less obtrusive. Also, derelict commercial land is normally in flat areas close to rivers.

If the global economy continues growing at 5% (China 12%) the super rich will get even more wealthy and any area close to Mayfair/Kensington in London will see a ripple effect. Battersea, Clapham, Hammersmith, Kings Cross-Bloomsbury are examples of areas that would experience a sizable shift up in prices. London has HQ for many global business and profits will come back to London - so I cannot see price dropping. I know first time buyer cannot afford these properties in central London, they never have been able to. But of you can get in at lowish cost - anywhere central, I see good returns. For cheaper areas - Bow/Limehouse and even New Cross/Peckham will continue to rise as the ripple extends outtwards. In 2002 price of a 1 bed in New Cross was £130k - now they are still only 155k - so 200k looks likely within a year or so.

MSN page:-

"But an increasing number of us are doing more than dreaming. More than 500 a day are leaving Blighty to start new lives abroad, according to the Office for National Statistics."

“We are getting 10,000 calls a month, compared to 1,000 a year or two back,” he said. “I think people are waking up to the fact that we are a global economy. UK plc has to work very hard against the likes of Western Australia, which is actively recruiting skilled people.”

See the link:-
http://money.uk.msn.com/Planning/Life_Events/moving_abroad/article.aspx?cp-documentid=6085566
Looks like it is slowly starting to enter the news. Unless we get a new government with real balls, seems like a mass exodus may actually happen, 'we got ourselves a convoy!" (to highlight the point of the UK's dismal situation, for the first time, in the news yesterday, foreign police have directly stated our police are too scared of causing controvesy to do their job! as if it wasn't known already but now it's stated for real, fingers pointed and the laughing stock of the world, they should take a leaf out of the Thai police book hehe).

Property price is only governed by demand and I still stand by my view that the desire for people to come and live here (and for those wanting to stay) is deminishing fast. Indeed wages here are still relatively strong for immigrants, however I have heard a fair amount of them are now turning their noses up at coming here due to our new antisocial unrespecting society, and soon to be culture.

If the Toriess get into power with their abolishment of inheritance tax, I think we all know what will happen to property prices then. So perhaps still some hope.